Trade-enabling infrastructure across Africa is improving, with rising business confidence and stronger macroeconomic stability supporting a more positive outlook for cross-border commerce, according to the latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer.
Issue 5 of the barometer covers Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, which together account for roughly two-thirds of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP. The report combines macroeconomic data with firm-level insights from more than 2,200 businesses, around 71% of which are SMEs.
“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category, including power, telecommunications, road, rail, ports and digital border systems,” said Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group. He noted this is the first time since the barometer’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously.
Growth across surveyed markets is projected to trend towards 4.3% in 2026, supported by moderating inflation in most economies and stronger external debt positions. The business confidence index rose to 65, with firms expecting improved turnover and more stable trading conditions. Commodity strength, particularly in gold, platinum and copper, has also supported exporters and foreign exchange earnings.
Regional integration continues to gather pace. Awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has reached 50%, with firms citing easier movement of goods, wider market access and industrialisation benefits. Early AfCFTA-enabled shipments signal growing operational progress.
East Africa emerged as the strongest-performing subregion, recording a notable rise in export activity driven by policy coordination and trade facilitation reforms. Developments such as Kenya–Uganda trade reclassification and renewed commitments between Kenya and Tanzania to remove non-tariff barriers are helping reduce administrative friction and improve logistics predictability.
Digital systems are also reshaping trade. The report shows digital payments now facilitate nearly four out of five cross-border transactions, supported by bank-led rails, mobile money integration and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, which enables faster local-currency settlement.
Despite progress, climate pressures remain a concern. More than a third of firms reported shifts in demand linked to climate impacts, while nearly a third cited productivity losses, highlighting the need for resilient infrastructure and production systems.
Looking ahead, the report suggests Africa’s trade trajectory will be shaped by deeper regional integration, continued infrastructure investment and improving macroeconomic fundamentals. However, geopolitical developments and global energy uncertainty remain potential risks to near-term trade costs.
“As AfCFTA implementation deepens and more countries harmonise customs, regulatory frameworks and logistics platforms, Africa’s ability to scale regional value chains and strengthen competitiveness will accelerate,” said Myburgh.
